What Happened

  • The crisis began in the early 1980s when countries across Latin America—such as Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina—could no longer service their external debt.

  • During the 1970s, governments borrowed heavily from international banks, supported by low global interest rates and large petrodollar inflows.

  • Loans financed infrastructure, industrialization, and government spending.

  • When U.S. interest rates rose sharply to fight inflation, debt service costs surged.

  • A global recession reduced demand for exports, and commodity prices fell.

  • In August 1982, Mexico announced it could not meet its obligations, triggering a regional debt crisis.

What Drove the Crisis

  • Countries borrowed excessively in foreign currency, especially U.S. dollars.

  • Many loans were short-term or floating-rate, making borrowers highly sensitive to U.S. rate increases.

  • The Federal Reserve raised rates above 15%, causing debt burdens to spike almost immediately.

  • Global banks had lent aggressively, assuming sovereigns would always repay.

  • Falling export revenues and capital flight eroded foreign reserves.

  • Once Mexico signaled default risk, lenders pulled back from the entire region, cutting off financing and accelerating the crisis.

Investor Lessons

  • Sovereign debt becomes unstable when borrowing is high, externally denominated, and exposed to global interest rates.

  • Emerging markets appear strong while foreign capital flows in but become fragile when global liquidity tightens.

  • Currency mismatch—borrowing in dollars while earning in local currency—is one of the most dangerous forms of leverage.

  • Macroeconomic shocks like rising U.S. rates or falling commodity prices can cascade through national balance sheets.

  • Assessing sovereign risk requires understanding debt structure, external accounts, global conditions, and domestic policy credibility.